Making Sense Of The EUR/CHF Relationship

If you're interested in getting into the forex market, there is one relationship that you must be aware of before you even start trading: the relationship between the euro and the Swiss franc currency pairs, a correlation too strong to be ignored. 

In the article Using Currency Correlations To Your Advantage, we see that the correlation between these two currency pairs can be upwards of negative 95%. This is known as an inverse relationship, which means that, generally speaking, when the EUR/USD (euro/U.S. dollar) rallies, the USD/CHF (U.S. dollar/Swiss franc) sells off the majority of the time and vice versa.

When you're dealing with two separate and distinct financial instruments, a 95% correlation is as close to perfection as you can hope for. In this article we explain what causes this relationship, what it means for trading, how the correlation differs on an intraday basis and when such a strong relationship can decouple. Read on and you'll also find out why, contrary to popular belief, arbitragingthe two currencies to earn the interest rate differential, does not work.

Where Does This Relationship Come From? Over the long term, most currencies that trade against the U.S. dollar have an above 50%correlation. This is the case because the U.S. dollar is a dominant currency that is involved in 90% of all currency transactions. Furthermore, the U.S. economy is the largest in the world, which means that its health has an impact on the health of many other nations. Although the strong relationship between the EUR/USD and USD/CHF is partially due to the common dollar factor in the two currency pairs, the fact that the relationship is far stronger than that of other currency pairs, stems from the close ties between the eurozone and Switzerland. 

As a country surrounded by other members of the eurozone, Switzerland has very close political and economic ties with its larger neighbors. The close economic relationship began with the free trade agreement established back in 1972 and was then followed by more than 100 bilateral agreements. These agreements have allowed the free flow of Swiss citizens into the workforce of the European Union (EU) and the gradual opening of the Swiss labor market to citizens of the EU. The two economies are very intimately linked. Therefore, if the eurozone contracts, Switzerland will feel the ripple effects. 

What Does This Mean for Trading?

Figure 1

When it comes to trading, the near mirror images of these two currency pairs, as seen in Figure 1, tell us that if we are long EUR/USD and long USD/CHF, we essentially have two closely offsettingpositions or basically, EUR/CHF. Meanwhile, if we are long one and short the other, we are actually doubling up on the same position, even though it may seem like two separate trades. This is very important to understand for proper risk management, because if something goes wrong when we are short one currency pair and long the other, losses can easily be compounded.